QB · Chicago Bears
Out · Hamstring. Sleeper player record updated Oct 13, 6:25 PM UTC. nflverse depth rank: 1 (Quarterback).
Structured status · higher confidence · Fresh within the seven-day observation window.Williams produced 269 passing yards, two passing scores, 65 rushing yards and two rushing scores in Week 1, then fell to 138 passing yards with no touchdowns in Week 2. His 15 carries across the sample create useful fantasy leverage, but the 29.5-point swing shows why one ceiling game cannot settle his dynasty tier.
Player-specific analysis · Reviewed September 25, 2026 · Editorial policyRebuilders can hold the age-24 starter, while contenders need another stable option until passing efficiency becomes more consistent. Buyers should negotiate from the model's market-production gap rather than pay as though the Week 1 touchdown rate is normal.
Full-game participation, 30-attempt volume, pressure-adjusted passing efficiency and designed rushing are the relevant follow-ups. A rebound based only on rushing touchdowns would improve fantasy scoring without fully answering the passing question.
The same player can require a different decision depending on your competitive window and the liquidity of the return.
Use him as a high-upside QB2 with a dependable alternative. Buy if the manager reacts to Week 2, but avoid paying the price of an already-proven elite passer.
Hold because age and starting access preserve Superflex liquidity. Sell only for a more insulated young quarterback or an overpay that materially improves multiple core positions.
Market demand is 99 while production is 86 and efficiency 51. FairPlay values the scarce young starter but discounts the assumption that his Week 1 conversion rate is established.
Williams played all snaps in Week 1 and 86 percent in Week 2, with 55 pass attempts and 15 carries overall. The rushing access survived, while passing yards and touchdowns collapsed in the second game.
The 13-point market lead over production is the price of draft capital, age and expected development. It can close through sustained passing efficiency; it should not close merely because the market remains enthusiastic.
FairPlay value 5,115 · Overall rank #54 · Market proxy 99 · Production 86These are negotiation scenarios calibrated to the current FairPlay tier, not promises that every league will price the assets identically.
Caleb Williams plus an adjustment ↔ Justin Herbert
Williams offers age and more early rushing; Herbert offers stronger stability. The add should reflect evidence, not draft pedigree alone.
Dak Prescott plus a future first ↔ Caleb Williams
The Williams side gains runway; the package side retains current stability and liquidity. League quarterback scarcity determines the balance.
No. It exposed volatility. The rushing floor is real in the sample, while repeatable passing efficiency remains unproven.
Only as a QB2 with another dependable starter. His ceiling is useful, but the current two-game floor is too wide to treat him as the sole anchor.
Caleb Williams is age 24, which places the career-window input at 93th percentile for QBs.
Caleb Williams carries a 99th percentile market signal and ranks #54 overall. The gap between market demand and on-field production is positive, meaning dynasty demand currently runs ahead of the production input.
Within the complete QB pool, production grades at 86th percentile, opportunity at 94th percentile, and efficiency at 51th percentile. Superflex position scarcity is applied separately.
Percentiles compare Caleb Williams with the complete current QB pool. They explain the published value; they are not separate fantasy-point projections.
Market demand is the strongest part of Caleb Williams’s current profile at 99th percentile. Efficiency is the clearest source of downside at 51th percentile. For trade decisions, compare that strength-and-risk mix with your roster timeline rather than relying on the overall value alone.
Comparable values to guide your offers.
Start with Caleb Williams in the dedicated Superflex calculator, then add the other side of the offer.